Gartner: Android blijft het onbetwiste Nr. 1 smartphone OS

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De afgelopen weken hebben verschillende analisten zich al gewaagd aan smartphone OS marktaandeel voorspellingen voor de komende 4 tot 5 jaar. De volgende in deze rij is afkomstig van Gartner.

Zij voorspellen dat Android vanaf dit jaar (2011) het onbetwiste nummer 1 smartphone OS zal worden. Opvallend is wel dat Gartner verwacht dat de piek voor Android al in 2012 zal komen te liggen met een marktaandeel van 49.2%. Daarna blijft het min of meer stabiel en komt het in 2015 uit op 48.8%. Goed voor ruim 539 miljoen verkochte Smartphones in dat jaar.

Smartphone OS marktaandeel voorspellingen

Als je de voorspellingen van Gartner bekijkt dan zou je kunnen afleiden dat de 'stagnatie' in de groei van Android vooral ingegeven zal worden door het succes van Windows Phone vanaf 2012. In de berekeningen van Gartner is, net als bij de andere voorspellers, namelijk ook een plek in de top 3 ingeruimd voor Microsoft (Windows Phone). In 2015 zou het OS van de Amerikaanse software gigant, en Nokia, 19.5% van de smartphone markt in handen hebben, zo luidt hun voorspelling. Symbian gaat de komende jaren nagenoeg compleet verdwijnen. Op zich is dat nog wel te begrijpen aangezien Nokia al heeft bevestigd dat men dit 'oude'  OS nog twee jaar zal blijven doorontwikkelen. Daarna lijkt het doek voor Symbian, als smartphone OS, definitief te vallen.

Gartner voorspelt, zo is te zien in onderstaande berekeningen, dat het marktaandeel van Apple (iOS) licht zal afnemen in de komende vier jaar, van 19.4% in 2011 naar 17.2% in 2015. Ook RIM (BlackBerry) blijft volgens deze voorspellingen inleveren. De Canadezen hebben in 2011 nog een marktaandeel van 13.4% (was 16% in 2010) maar zakken de komende vier jaar naar 11.1%.

Letwel, al deze 'procenten' zijn dus de verwachte marktaandelen. In absolute aantallen (verkochte toestellen) zal de smartphone markt, volgens Gartner, de komende jaren verder explosief blijven stijgen, van ruim 467 miljoen smartphones in 2012 tot meer dan 1.1 miljard toestellen in 2015. We zullen zien. Op de volgende pagina kun je het complete persbericht van Gartner nalezen.

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Persbericht Gartner

Gartner Says Android to Command Nearly Half of Worldwide Smartphone Operating System Market by Year-End 2012

Egham, UK, April 7, 2011- Worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011, a 57.7 percent increase from 2010, according to Gartner Inc. By the end of 2011, Android will move to become the most popular operating system (OS) worldwide and will build on its strength to account for 49 percent of the smartphone market by 2012 (see Table 1).
Sales of open OS* devices will account for 26 percent of all mobile handset device sales in 2011, and are expected to surpass the 1 billion mark by 2015, when they will account for 47 percent of the total mobile device market.

"By 2015, 67 percent of all open OS devices will have an average selling price of $300 or below, proving that smartphones have been finally truly democratized," said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner.

"As vendors delivering Android-based devices continue to fight for market share, price will decrease to further benefit consumers", Ms. Cozza said. "Android's position at the high end of the market will remain strong, but its greatest volume opportunity in the longer term will be in the mid- to low-cost smartphones, above all in emerging markets."

Gartner predicts that Apple's iOS will remain the second biggest platform worldwide through 2014 despite its share deceasing slightly after 2011. This reflects Gartner's underlying assumption that Apple will be interested in maintaining margins rather than pursuing market share by changing its pricing strategy. This will continue to limit adoption in emerging regions. iOS share will peak in 2011, with volume growth well above the market average. This is driven by increased channel reach in key mature markets like the U.S. and Western Europe.

Research In Motion's share over the forecast period will decline, reflecting the stronger competitive environment in the consumer market, as well as increased competition in the business sector. Gartner has factored in RIM's migration from BlackBerry OS to QNX which is expected in 2012. Analysts said this transition makes sense because RIM can create a consistent experience going from smartphones to tablets with a single developer community and - given that QNX as a platform brings more advanced features than the classic BlackBerry OS - it can enable more competitive smartphone products.

Gartner predicts that Nokia will push Windows Phone well into the mid-tier of its portfolio by the end of 2012, driving the platform to be the third largest in the worldwide ranking by 2013. Gartner has revised its forecast of Windows Phone's market share upward, solely by virtue of Microsoft's alliance with Nokia. Although this is an honorable performance it is considerably less than what Symbian had achieve in the past underlying the upward battle that Nokia has to face.

Gartner analysts said new device types will widen ecosystems. "The growth in sales of media tablets expected in 2011 and future years will widen the ecosystems that open OS communications devices have created. This will, by and large, function more as a driver than an inhibitor for sales of open OS devices," said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner.

"Consumers who already own an open OS communications device will be drawn to media tablets and more often than not, to media tablets that share the same OS as their smartphone," Ms. Milanesi said. "This allows consumers to be able to share the same experience across devices as well as apps, settings or game scores. At the same time, tablet users who don't own a smartphone could be prompted to adopt one to be able to share the experience they have on their tablets."

Note *: An open OS makes a software developer kit (SDK) available to developers, who can use native application programming interfaces (APIs) to write applications. The OS can be supported by a sole vendor or multiple vendors. It can be, but does not have to be, open source. Examples are BlackBerry OS, iOS, Symbian, Android, Windows Phone, Linux, Limo Foundation, WebOS and bada.

Gartner's detailed forecast is available in the report "Forecast: Mobile Communications Devices by Open Operating System, Worldwide, 2008-2015." The report is available on Gartner's website at http://www.gartner.com/resId=1619615.

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Ron Smeets

Ron is mede oprichter en hoofdredacteur van Mobile Cowboys. Zijn passie voor mobiele gadgets is ontstaan aan het begin van de jaren 90 en groeit nog dagelijks....

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